Weekly Economic Commentary

Setting The Stage | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 17, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next policy decision June 19. We think a language change is more likely than a policy change at this meeting. Economic fundamentals are still sound, but the Fed must address plans to mitigate trade risk....

A Record-Long Expansion | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 10, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS This economic expansion is now one of the longest on record. Trade tensions have threatened growth, but economic data still appear sound. If the trade dispute continues, the Fed could be forced to intervene. Click here to download a PDF of this report....

The Baffling Bond Market | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 3, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS The 10-year Treasury yield has declined at a rapid pace. Economic fundamentals still look sound, even as yields send cautious signals. Investors around the world have rushed into Treasuries for income, safety, and liquidity. Click here to download a PDF...

Five Forecasters | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 28, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS Our Five Forecasters collectively point to economic growth ahead. Leading indicators are still rising, but the pace has slowed recently. Yield curve inversion looks manageable given positive signs from other indicators. Click here to download a PDF of...

A Step Back On Trade | Weekly Economic Commentary | May 20, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS The United States has raised tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Even in the worst-case scenario, we don’t expect a significant impact on the U.S. economy. Raising tariffs could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. Click here to...