The Comeback

September 30th Weekly Market Update

Down 8-to-1, Oracle Team USA won the last eight races in a row in an epic comeback to win the 34th America’s Cup last week. Almost as unexpected,the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has fallen almost eight days in a row, helping to bring the rally in yields from 3% to 2.6%.

The comeback for the U.S. bond market is due to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision that economic data have not being strong enough to begin slowing the pace of its bond-buying program in addition to generally disappointing economic data since the Fed’s meeting on September 18. This week provides the widely watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report on manufacturing on Tuesday, October 1, 2013 and the employment report (if the government agency’s staff is working) on Friday, October 4, 2013. Strong readings may lift stocks and bond yields, while readings on the weak side could exacerbate pressure on markets. In general, the economic
numbers are expected to be similar to those of recent months.

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