Weekly Market Commentary

After such a strong rally for stocks this year, you may be wondering what could drive stocks higher from here…

On the men’s side, Auburn, Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Virginia are headed to Minneapolis to determine this year’s college basketball national champion.

Risk-reward trade-off in stocks has become less attractive following recent gains.

Large caps may be better positioned than small caps, given where we are in the business cycle.

Fundamentals remain sound, valuations are reasonable, and most technical indicators we follow point to further potential gains ahead.

During the 10-year bull market, the S&P 500 Index has more than quadrupled in value.

Recent gains eliminated oversold conditions and pushed valuations higher, raising the bar for further gains and making the next leg higher more difficult to achieve.

The rally continues, as the S&P 500 Index gained for the seventh week out of the past eight, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 Index, and Nasdaq all closed higher for the eighth consecutive week.

Tax cuts boosted earnings growth by 7–8 percentage points. Revenues (which are not impacted by the tax cuts) are tracking to a healthy 6% increase, similar to prior expectations.

2019 is off to a roaring start, as the S&P 500 Index gained 7.9% for its best January since 1987.